If Robert Zemekis is any sort of Nostradamus, we’re only five years away from hover boards, self-drying clothes, and automatically lacing shoes. I am so freakin’ excited!
Of course, when the movie came out in 1989, Back to the Future Part II was a nice peek into the future. Now, of course, it’s a bit kitschy (psh…as if newspapers will be around in 2015).
Where’s My Mr. Fusion?
But not long ago, The National Association of Home Buyers (NAHB) took on the task of predicting what the house of 2015 will be like. They concluded:
The average home will have 2,330 square feet on two floors and contain 2-1/2 to 3-1/2 bathrooms and four bedrooms. The family room will replace the living room which will either vanish or become a library, “retreat,” or parlor.
The average home will not have the high vaulted ceiling found in so much construction today. Foyers will be one story as will family rooms but ceilings throughout the first floor will be nine-feet high with the second floor being eight to nine feet. The staircase to the second floor will rise from the foyer, there will be a front porch and a patio, and the exterior of the house will be vinyl or fiber cement siding or brick. [source]
No real excitement there. Where are the automatic fruit dispensers? To be fair, the article does mention the tech features of the house will include fiber optic wiring throughout as well as programmable thermostats. Oooh…programmable thermostats! How futuristic!
Of course, if Microsoft has their way, your house will run on Windows. Your insurance will skyrocket, of course, due to the constant crashing of your home’s operating system, but at least you’ll have interactive wallpaper to keep you happy while you’re trapped inside of your home because the computer-operated doors won’t budge thanks to the latest Internet Explorer Malware.
All these high-tech predictions are kind of funny, though. No one ever takes into account the everyday lives of actual people when predicting robot maids or 300 mph flying cars (could you imagine falling to your death after a mid-air fender-bender?). No one ever predicts how the little things may get in the way of making such high-tech “wonders” work. How the heck are you supposed to get the dust out of your electric table?
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
Of course, predicting what features the house of the future will include is about as dependable as, well, predicting future of housing. Another thing futurists never are able to take into account? Recessions.
In the summer of 2006, the REALTORS Commercial Alliance Report predicted their real estate outlook for 2010. Among the findings?
“…[T]here is only a 40 percent likelihood of a recession by 2010…real estate will revert to what it’s always been, 2/3 income and 1/3 appreciation.”
Oops. “Hello? Hello? Anybody home? Huh? Think, McFly. Think!”
Not that you can blame them. Everybody wants to know what the future holds and a lot of people are paid good money to guess at what exactly that is. Heck, even Zemeckis thought there’d still be phone booths in 2015.
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
This kind of reminded of W. Ogburn’s theory of cultural lag I’ve read about some time ago (though the concept itself is relatively old). This theory speaks of a period that occurs when the society is struggling to adapt to new technological innovations. During this period we often fail to understand new technologies and we tend to overestimate their impact. It happened when television came, it happened when the Internet came, it happens all the time.
But these average homes predictions are somehow different. Perhaps we are just slowly learning to become more sober with our expectations and that’s why these articles aren’t predicting flying cars and they are perfectly happy with houses with programmable thermostats and real estate market in 2015.
On the other hand, it still seems a bit futuristic to me – the trend toward bigger and bigger houses mentioned in one of the articles. I mean, people in the US are struggling with the outcomes of the crisis, facing foreclosures, etc., and I’m not sure that they would be willing – and able – to buy some huge house in 2015.
Well put, Vancouver. I talked about the huge house epidemic last month, too. (http://dotloop.blogspot.com/2010/01/what-would-thoreau-build.html)
I love the idea about cultural lag, though. People will always be people, so I don’t see every person wearing silver jump suits in the future. I always found it funny how movies in the future always assume technology will just work. Apparently, tech support won’t be needed in the suture.
Thanks for the post!
Nick Sweeney
The DotLoop Team